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Key Figures on Climate
France, Europe and Worldwide
2025 edition
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Consequences for France

Reference warming trajectory for climate adaptation (TRACC) and effects on the climate

2030

2050

2100

Global warming

(ref. 1850-1900)

1.5°C

2°C

3°C

Warming in metropolitan France

(ref. 1900-1930)

2°C

2.7°C

4°C

Warming in metropolitan France

(ref. 1976-2005)

1.4°C

2.1°C

3.4°C

Annual rainfall (ref. 1976-2005)

+4%

+4%

+2%

Cumulative summer precipitation

(ref. 1976-2005)

-4%

-8%

-19%

Heatwave temperatures (maximum temperature over 35°C)

(ref. 1976-2005)

+1.2 days

+3.1 days

+7.7 days

Source: Météo-France, 2024

On the basis of the IPCC scenarios, and as part of the development of its climate change adaptation policy (see p. 79), France has opted since 2023 to adopt the trend trajectory for temperature change, taking into account current global climate policies and the commitments of governments. This reference warming trajectory for adaptation to climate change (TRACC, see glossary) projects global warming of 1.5°C in 2030, 2°C in 2050 and 3°C in 2100 compared to the pre-industrial era. This corresponds to an average warming of 2°C in 2030, 2.7°C in 2050 and 4°C in 2100 for metropolitan France.

The consequences for France can be simulated for each level of warming and summarized using a few synthetic indicators. For example, in 2050, an increase in temperature in metropolitan France of 2.7°C compared with the period 1900-1930 would result in a 4% increase in precipitation over the year, but an 8% drop in precipitation over the summer period. These figures are median values for the whole of France, and may therefore vary up or down depending on the region.

Past and future number of tropical nights in metropolitan France

Source: Météo-France, 2024

Assuming a warming of +4°C in France by 2100 compared with the pre-industrial era (in accordance with TRACC), by 2100 the whole country would be affected by a significant increase in the number of so-called tropical nights, i.e. nights when the temperature does not fall below 20°C. Only mountainous areas, Brittany and the Channel coast would remain virtually unaffected, while these tropical nights could occur 40 to 50 times per year in the northern half (as many as the maximum on the Mediterranean coast today), and more than a hundred times per year in the most exposed areas, notably around the Mediterranean.

Annual soil moisture cycle

Scope: metropolitan France.
Source: Météo-France, 2025

Comparison of the annual soil moisture cycle in France between the 1961-1990 climatic reference period and the near (2021-2050) or distant (2071-2100) time horizons of the 21st century (according to a scenario corresponding to the current trajectory) points to significant drying out in all seasons.

In terms of potential impact on vegetation and non-irrigated crops, this trend would result in an average lengthening of the dry period by 2 to 4 months, while the wet period would shrink by the same proportion. The average soil moisture at the end of the century could thus correspond to today's extreme dry conditions.