datalab
France and the nine planetary boundaries
lang
lang

Land-system change

Global deforestation leading the planet into a zone of uncertainty

The use and condition of soils have undergone profound changes over time as a result of human activity (agriculture, housing construction, urbanization, artificialization, industry), with major consequences for the environment on a global scale.

As the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment points out, land use change and associated degradation are among the main pressures on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services as a whole (see glossary). While the clearing of forests for agriculture has increased the production of food for human and animal consumption and other material goods important to people (such as natural fibers), it has at the same time reduced contributions such as pollination, climate regulation, water quality regulation or opportunities for learning and inspiration.

Considering that the presence of forest is essential for regulating climate and water flows between land and atmosphere, researchers have defined two control variables for understanding land-use change, and these relate directly to forest cover. The first relates to forest area as a whole, and the second to forest area by biom (see glossary).

On a global scale, the limit represents the ratio between the forest area today and the forest area before 1700 (before major human intervention across the globe), referred to as "original" by researchers at the Stockholm Resilience Centre. At the level of the three main forest biomes (temperate, tropical and boreal forests), the limit corresponds to the ratio between the area they occupy today and the area they occupied before 170 (Table 5).

Table 5: Control variables and planetary boundary for land-system change

Control variables

Thresholds and areas of uncertainty

Global values

Global scale: ratio ofcurrent forest area to "original" forest area (pre-1700)

75% of the "original" forest area must remain forested (boundary) and not fall below 54% (limit).

62% of the "original" forest area is still forest.

Biome: ratio between the biome 's current forest area andits "original" forest area (prior to 1700).

Temperate forests: 50% of the "original" forest area must remain forested (boundary) and not fall below 30% (limit).

Tropical and boreal forests: 85% of the "original" forest area must remain forested (boundary) and not fall below 60% (limit).

50% of "original" temperate forestsare still forested.

68% of "original" tropical and boreal forestsare still forested.

Source: based on Steffen et al., 2015

The values presented above show that only 62% of the pre-1700 forest area is still forested worldwide in 2015, so the 75% planetary boundary is well exceeded, although still within the zone of uncertainty. As for temperate forests, 50% of the area occupied by them before 1700 is still present in 2015, so we're at the lower limit of the uncertainty zone (between 50 and 30%). The overall figure of 50% may, however, conceal local disparities, with major threats to biodiversity and ecosystems at certain points.

Since 1990, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), around 420 million hectares (Mha) of forest have been lost to deforestation. Although the annual rate of deforestation is tending to decrease, it still represents 10 Mha/year of forests over the period 2015-2020, compared with 12 Mha/year over the period 2010-2015 (FAO, 2020).

More globally, according to the FAO, in 2022, forests will occupy 31% of the world's land surface (4.06 billion hectares). Tropical forests account for 45% of all forests, ahead of boreal, temperate and sub-tropical forests. Primary forests (forests untouched by human intervention) cover 1.11 billion hectares. Since 1990, their surface area has decreased by 81 Mha.

Causes and issues

Agricultural and livestock production is the leading cause of deforestation worldwide, and a third of this production is destined for export (soy, palm oil, beef and beef co-products, cocoa, rubber, wood and wood by-products). International trade is thus one of the main determinants of global deforestation.

Deforestation between 2000 and 2018 is linked to crop expansion (49.6%), pasture expansion (38.46%), urbanization and infrastructure development (6.16%), and other causes such as mining (5.78%). Oil palm alone accounted for 7% of global deforestation over the same period (FAO, 2021) (Figure 14).

Figure 14: Global causes of deforestation over the period 2000-2018

Source: FAO, 2021

Globally, according to the OECD, between 1960 and 2010, to meet the needs of a world population that more than doubled, food production more than tripled, with a 15% increase in agricultural land and intensification of production methods (mechanization, use of synthetic fertilizers and phytopharmaceutical products, varietal improvement, irrigation).

The disappearance of a forest or its replacement by monoculture plantations leads directly to a loss of biodiversity. Forests are home to over 80% of the world's animal, plant and insect species (FAO, 2020).

The disappearance of forests is also detrimental to maintaining their CO2 storage capacity and their role as carbon sinks (see glossary). This is the case of tropical forests, particularly the Brazilian Amazon. As a result of climate change, these forests now release more carbon than they absorb (Qin, 2021).

Between deforestation, climate change and multiple degradations, the Amazon rainforest is suffering from a significant loss of biodiversity, leading to disturbance of the mesofauna (see glossary). It is also suffering from increased drought, which is likely to encourage the outbreak of fires and increase its vulnerability (Boulton, 2022).

France's contribution to exceeding the planetary boundary

Forest area in France is increasing, by around 80,000 ha per year (IGN). It will reach 17 Mha in 2020, compared with 16.2 Mha in 2010. On the other hand, agricultural land has been declining by 65,900 ha/year since 1982, mainly due to the artificialization of land (+57 ,600 ha/year since 1982) - (SSP, 2021).

Despite this reduction in agricultural land, France remains a net exporter of agricultural raw materials (Solagro, 2022), but it also consumes and therefore imports significant quantities of agricultural and forestry raw materials that are not produced domestically. France thus indirectly uses land located in other parts of the world, some of which comes from the deforestation of tropical forests, and contributes to exerting strong pressure on foreign land resources.

According to the FAO (2016), the EU is responsible for around 10% of global deforestation through consumption. According to WWF, 16% of deforestation associated with international trade is attributable to the EU. Pendrill et al. estimate that deforestation linked to international trade accounts for 26% of total deforestation.

In France, a number of studies have attempted to estimate the agricultural and forestry areas required to produce our consumer goods. Most of these studies use three-stage material flow accounting:

  • analysis of the quantities of goods imported into France and estimation of their origin with regard to the country of production;
  • determination of the surface area of land used to produce these goods, known as the "land footprint";
  • estimate of the area deforested to cultivate this land, known as the "forest footprint".

Land footprint

While methodological choices - such as the commodities taken into account in the analysis - have a definite influence on the results obtained, the orders of magnitude of the areas mobilized outside our borders are consistent, as far as the land footprint is concerned, and range from 12 to 14.8 Mha/year (Solagro, 2021).

Forest footprint

Linking the agricultural area required for imported goods to the deforested area is an even more delicate exercise. Measuring deforestation is a complex issue that depends on a number of methodological choices, including:

  • defining forest in terms of a canopy threshold, whereas there are forests with a high density of trees and others with a sparser canopy;
  • the date from which the forest is considered deforested;
  • considering net deforestation, by deducting forest plantations without taking into account the age and quality of the forest, or gross deforestation, by focusing on the loss of primary forests.

The parameters chosen have a strong influence on the result. IUCN21 estimates deforestation associated with France's imports at 9.8m2 per capita per year over the 2010-2015 period, while WWF (2021) estimates deforestation at around 4m2 per capita per year on average between 2005 and 2017 (giving 64, 400 and 26,300 ha per year respectively for France).

While the low threshold of the planetary boundary for land-use change through deforestation has already been exceeded, our consumption of imported goods (soy, palm oil, cocoa, beef and hides, rubber, wood, etc.) contributes to reaching the high threshold of the limit. Thus, if all humans had a forest footprint identical to that of a French person, the upper threshold of the limit (40% of the "original" area of tropical and boreal forests destroyed) would also be exceeded in around sixty years22.

21 Mittempergher D., Vergez A. and Puydarrieux P. (article submitted, under review). International trade and deforestation: method and calculation of a Nations deforestation footprint. Revue d'économie du développement.
22 Assumptions taken: the upper threshold of the limit exceeded for an additional deforestation of 344 million hectares of tropical and boreal forests, an average forest footprint per capita per year of 6.9m2 of tropical forest, a constant world population of 7.9 billion.

Policies and actions to limit deforestation and protect soils

To tackle the threats to biodiversity and achieve carbon storage, particularly in soils and vegetation, the fight against forest degradation and deforestation is an international priority, reflected in Sustainable Development Goal 15.223. At the COP26 climate conference in November 2021, 100 countries - including Brazil, Canada, Russia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo - home to over 85% of the world's forests, pledged to halt deforestation by 2030.

To limit the impact of its consumption on tropical forests, in November 2021 the European Commission proposed a regulation on imported deforestation, which was definitively adopted in May 2023. This regulation aims to prohibit the placing on or export from the European market of raw materials and products that have caused deforestation or forest degradation. To achieve this, a mandatory due diligence system will be set up: companies affected by the regulation will be required to collect certain information, including origin, and trace the supply chain back to the plot where their product is produced. This information must make it possible to conclude that there is no or negligible risk of deforestation on this plot, and to prove that no forest has been cleared there since 2020.

France took up the issue of imported deforestation back in 2018, publishing a national strategy to combat imported deforestation (SNDI)24. This strategy aims to eliminate by 2030 the import of unsustainable forest or agricultural products contributing to deforestation in the cocoa, rubber, soy, palm oil, wood and its by-products, and beef and its co-products sectors. Within this framework, two tools have already been developed: a tool for assessing the deforestation risks associated with soy imports, and a guide to deforestation in public purchasing policies. Private initiatives are also being encouraged, such as the Sustainable Cocoa Initiative and the Soy Manifesto.

With regard to its own forests (whether in mainland France or overseas, and particularly in French Guiana), France has a highly protective tool at its disposal in the form of the Forestry Code, which governs forest management to ensure that it is carried out in a sustainable and multifunctional manner. As a result, any clearing of more than 0.5 or 4 ha must be subject to an authorization request and a compensatory measure.

Beyond forests, the challenge in France is to limit as far as possible the loss of land through artificialisation. This was reflected in the 2018 Biodiversity Plan by a goal of "zero net artificialisation", artificialisation being defined as "the lasting alteration of all or part of a soil's ecological functions, in particular its biological, hydric and climatic functions, as well as its agronomic potential through its occupation or use"25. The Climate and Resilience Act of August 22, 2021 set the objective of halving the rate of land consumption by 2031 to begin the trajectory of "zero net artificialization" by 2050. This will be applied locally in planning documents at the level of territorial coherence schemes (SCoT) in 2026 and PLU/PLUi and cartes communales in 2027.

23 MDG 15.2: by 2020, promote the sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and significantly increase afforestation and reforestation worldwide.
24 National strategy to combat imported deforestation.
25 Interministerial portal on soil artificialisation.

Further information